Research Of Financial Crisis Warning Model Of The Listed Corporation

In the highly competitive market environment, the survival and development of enterprises in both the external environment of companies is changing, but also because the enterprise itself always face various problems, therefore, cause losses to enterprises and enterprise threat continuing operations of the financial crisis from time to time. However, the outbreak of the financial crisis is a process of gradual accumulation. Formation and the outbreak of the financial crisis in the process, there can always grasp the opportunities and can be turned into an opportunity. Therefore, How the financial crisis has not yet come before the pre-discovery and early inform managers and investors to take early and effective measures to eliminate hidden crisis, that is the establishment of a listed company financial crisis warning system to be studied.In this paper, the theory of the financial crisis and the financial crisis warning conducted a comprehensive theory expounded: analysis of the financial crisis warning system on the background, significance and the purpose of the study and then on the financial crisis and related literature was reviewed, including financial crisis Research and the concept of the status quo at home and abroad.Second, this article analysis of the impact of financial fraud of listed companies on the establishment a financial crisis warning model, Serious financial fraud that acts for the establishment of an effective financial crisis early warning system to produce the impact should not be ignored ,and very serious damage to the majority of the interests and securities markets function of optimizing the allocation of resources to play. Therefore, in a financial crisis warning system, should first consider the impact of the profit manipulation, and use various statistical methods to establish model.The final part of this paper is the Empirical Research .Using principal component analysis of the indicators primary screening to determine the financial crisis warning model the independent variables; using multiple logistic regression method established of only owned financial indicators of the financial model and includes non-financial indicators of crisis warning model ,and two financial crisis warning model is testing, analysis and comparison .Results show that includes non - financial early warning indicators of the forecast accuracy of the model is higher than that of only the early warning indicators of the financial model.