Research On Early Warning Of Financial Crisis Of China Listed Manufacturing Corporations

The global industrial competition in the world is undergoing major adjustments.The integration of a new generation of information technology and manufacturing industry has led to industrial changes.China's manufacturing industry is facing the situation of "two-way squeeze",the "re-industrialization strategy" in developed countries and other developing countries' efforts to open up the international market space.Especially in the background of the coming of Industry 4.0,the economic development of our country has entered a new normal and the "Made in China 2025" is released,China's manufacturing industry is facing a huge challenge of industrial restructuring and upgrading.The challenge is to seize opportunities and seize a new round of manufacturing commanding heights.It is bound to be settled in manufacturing enterprises.To maintain a sound financial position and avoid financial crises are necessary conditions for the successful transformation of enterprises.Therefore,it is necessary to establish an early warning model of financial crisis of manufacturing listed companies that matches the current economic situation so as to realize the monitoring and prevention of financial crisis.Therefore,this article takes the financial crisis of listed companies in the manufacturing industry in China as the research object,and selects 49 companies,which were handled by ST or *ST during 2015-2017,as the financial crisis companies.And based on time,industry,and asset scale as the selection criteria,40 normal companies were selected as matching samples of 40 crisis companies for comparative research.The remaining 9 crisis companies and 27 normal companies formed training samples to test the accuracy of the model.On the basis of theoretical analysis,the article uses financial indicators and non-financial indicators(corporate governance)to construct financial crisis warning models.In the empirical research section,the financial crisis warning models based on financial indicators or the introduction of non-financial indicators were established for the first two years of the crisis,and the warning effects of the four models were compared and tested.The study found that: With the approaching of financial crisis,the warning effect of the model also increased;compared with the early warning model based on financial indicators,the effect of non-financial indicators model introduced will be further improved.From the explanatory variables entered the model,it can be seen that short-term solvency indicators(current ratio,quick ratio,cash ratio),growth ability indicators(fixed assets growth rate,total asset growth rate,operating income growth rate),and operational capability indicators(non-current asset turnover rate,total asset turnover rate),profitability index(operating net margin,total asset net interest rate,invested capital return rate),individual stock return(basic earnings per share),shareholding ratio of the largest shareholder,The ratio of the shareholdings of the top ten shareholders,the ratio of the company's largest shareholder to the second largest shareholder,the ratio of unpaid executives,the actual size of senior executives,and whether the board of supervisors holds shares will all be important to the early warning model.These haveoffered manufacturing listed companies the way to predict financial crisis and to adopt targeted preventions and control-measure.