The Research On The Early Warning Of The Listed Companies’ Financial Crisis

In the today’s global economic integration context, there are gradually increasing marketuncertainties, fiercer and fiercer competition between enterprises and huger and huger financialrisks for enterprises, which brings abnormal financial situation, especially to listed companiesand makes more and more examples of financial crises occur. Listed company is the mostimportant part of our national economy. If financial crisis comes up in the listed companies, itnot only would bring about some influences to the survival and development of enterprises, butalso would cause serious losses to corporate investors, creditors and other stakeholders. What’smore, it will greatly affect economic development and social harmony. Therefore, the warningmechanism that can accurately predict the financial condition is urgently needed building sothat when the abnormal financial situation of enterprises come up, then it can alert to thebusiness managers timely with some measure prepared aiming to prevent the financial crisis.On the basis of widely reading and analyzing domestic and international the warningstudy of financial crisis，the paper takes Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies asthe object of study and adopts qualitative and quantitative, meanwhile with normative analysisand empirical study as a combination of research methods on the financial crisis early warning.Details are as follows:Firstly, on the basis of reading the documents of previous scholars, the paper do somesummary and study of the theory of financial crisis early warning, including discussing anddetermining the definition of the financial crisis and making the interpretation of the concept ofFinancial Distress, as well as function discourse of the financial crisis early warning. In themean while I pay more attention to the analysis and research about causes of financial crisis andthe theoretical basis of the financial crisis early warning.Secondly, the paper makes some designs for the processes and ideas of the empiricalresearch. The paper selected60listed companies by ST from the year2009to2011inaccordance with the principle of selection of the sample, also60non-ST-listed companiesselected in a1:1ratio.At the same time, the listed companies selected were assigned to two groups randomly.One group is used to construct early warning model and another group used to test the early warning model. Besides the paper select14financial early-warning indicators and3cash flowindicators so as to build a more perfect early warning indicators system combined with previousresearch experience and the main reason to financial crisis. By compared with a number ofresearch methods, the paper chooses a logistic regression analysis method to buildearly-warning model.Finally, the paper carry on obvious analysis about early warning indicators of theprimaries with SPSS17.0statistical software in order to select the indicators with a obviousdifference between the financial crisis enterprises and non-financial crisis enterprises, and thendo factors analysis through the test of early warning indicators in order to eliminate the problemof collinear between the indicators achieving the purpose of concentrating indicators.Logistic regression of the early warning model referred in the paper was built eventuallyaccording to early-warning indicators handled and the training sample. The paper also carriedout two tests to ensure the effectiveness and stability of the early-warning model taking aadvantage of training samples and testing samples.