| Recent years, the developing of commercial real estate projects were becoming the new highlight of Chinese real estate industry step by step by replacing the developing of residential real estate projects. At the background of increasingly normal market, real estate company, consulting institution, financial institution, investor, government and real estate industry association all need accurate the data of projects as a unit in market, especially investment estimate data of project in feasibility research phase. Which are used as an important basis of investment decision and risk controlling and management in later phases. But former studies made by many research institutions mainly focused on investment estimates of industrial projects and cost controlling of individual projects. It is looked as a weak aspect for the whole real estate industry that the accuracy of project investment estimates is too lower to meet the permissible error regulated by the government in feasibility research phrase. Overestimate is a very common phenomenon, which will undoubtedly be a barrier for smoothly increasing of real estate industry.The subject of this dissertation is about the investment estimate method of commercial real estate projects in feasibility research phase of project, which never be carried out by far. By using for reference of many internal and external achievements of investment estimate and linking up characters of domestic commercial real estate projects and domestic policy environment, twenty typically real commercial real estate projects are collected with sticking by actuality in a sample to be used for further analysis. by using SPSS software tool, Remarkable correlations between basic variables and data of sample are very clear after doing correlation analysis, and regression analysis, a kind of predicted method of the relation between cause and effect, is used as a way to build the predict model. When model tests are met and special analysis and dealing with of some parts of data are finished, a new model predicting method of commercial real estate projects investment estimate based on typical projects sample data can be draw. After accuracy comparison analysis and testing by actual examples, a conclusion can be draw that this new method is simple, direct, reasonable and easy to spread out. Its accurate error is lower than the permissible error regulated by the government in feasibility research phrase. Because of the penetrability of its process and normality and objectivity of its results, subjectivities of organizations or individuals can be avoided effectively and different estimators can get almost the same result by using it. Furthermore, its process has stronger persuasiveness than former ones. So it is obvious that the new method is better than former methods and other model predicting methods in similar studies.In sum, this new method can be used as an investment estimate model of commercial real estate projects for all the industry. With the spreading out of the new method, problems of former investment estimate of commercial real estate projects can be avoided effectively and standardized management and smoothly development of real estate industry can be promoted actively. |
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