Theory Research And Quantitative Analysis Of Impact Factors On Commercial Housing Price

Since 1998, the reform of housing market has promoted the development of real estate market, especially the housing market, making it the support of national economy. But in these two years,the soar of housing price, waste of land resource, and the increase of financial risk may cause a financial crisis which will result in the decline of the national economy. The key to these problems lies in the formation of reasonable housing price by the valid intervention of government. Therefore, the research of impact factors on commercial housing price is really important for the government policy making, which is also the objective of this paper.Based on the analysis of the domestic and international researches, we tried to look for the impact factors of commercial housing price in both perfect competition market and imperfect competition market, including supply factors, demand factors, macro-economic factors, and policy factors. And then, the theory models based on these impact factors and econometric models based on the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) were built up. By the demonstration analysis of the real estate market of Fujian Province from 1999 to 2005, the dynamic influences of different factors to commercial housing price were achieved, and finally some policy suggestions were proposed to control the soar of housing price, such as supply-and-demand policy, housing finance, land policy and tax policy.There are two creative aspects in this paper: firstly, the impact factors of housing price were considered thoroughly from different aspects in both perfect competition market and imperfect competition market; and secondly, the SVAR method was used to analyze the dynamic and structural influences of these factors to the commercial housing price, taking both immediate and lag influences into account.