Credit Rationing And Economic Effect In The Capital Market: Theoretical And Empirical Analysis

Credit rationing is one of important subjects in economics, which Adam Smith and Keynes had both discussed. Meanwhile, it is also a concerned problem by the home and abroad experts and scholars, because credit rationing is a problem of informational asymmetry associated with any capital market. In early times, the main reasons of the existence of credit rationing are law, institution, government regulation and other exogenous factors. But as the development of information economics, which introduce informational asymmetry into the capital market, the theory of credit rationing pays more attention to study the endogenetic reasons, which make the rational and non-coercive creditors maintain the loan interest rate under the level of clearing market. In this paper, after a brief review of the theory of credit rationing, the author coordinated and commented on the formation mechanism of credit rationing in three different angles of view.Credit rationing as ubiquitous phenomena of economic activities in society, many scholars pay more attention to it because of its existence leads to some economic effects. In macroscopical aspect, credit rationing influences the effectiveness of the monetary policy transmission mechanism and harmonious development of industrial structure adjustment and regional economic. In microcosmic aspect, credit rationing results in the segmentation of credit market, makes the small scale financing enterprises, bad financing enterprises and financing enterprises located in undeveloped area obtain the capital from banks difficultly, especially makes the financing problem of SMEs become all countries government to solve it. In this paper, just analyze credit rationing and economic effect in above-mentioned aspects.As the development of econometrics, many economic phenomena can use the metric model to analyze quantitatively. In this paper, the author used this method to study quantitatively on macroeconomic and microeconomic effects of credit rationing. To cointegration test the money supply and credit amount in our country, the paper used the monthly data for 2000-2006. At the same time, the paper chose the Logit model to study microeconomic effects of credit rationing using the data from investigation.Credit rationing leads to the capital market disequilibrium, so in the last chapter of the paper, the author mainly exoatiate on government intervene and the realization mechanism of capital market equilibrium and policies choice of government intervene the capital market.