On China's Grain Trade Status And Food Security Under WTO Background

Lester R·Brown published"Who Will feed China?"in 1995,thinking that China's continuing surge in food imports will trigger sharp increase of World Food prices,and thereby cause serious threat against the security of food–deficit countries, which initiated the world-wide discussion about the grain security problem of China.This paper maintains that with regard to the study of the food security of China, we should firstly make a clear understanding of the status of Chinese grain trade,then based on this give an evaluation and refutation to Brown's viewpoint through empirical analysis,and finally on account of the food security in open economy, inquire into the feasible trade strategy of China in line with its grain trade status.Food safety is a difficult global problem,it is as well a major strategic issue for our country. Some people refer food security merely as realizing adequate food production and reserves domesticly,but this is a one-sided view. In the trend of global economic integration, especially in the context of China's accession to the WTO,not only the allocation and utilization of resources,but also the demand for and market of agricultural products are all beyond the border of country,utilizing international market is by no means because of our country unable afford its people with sufficient food,but to achieve effective food security by fulfilling its agricultural comparative advantages. We do not deny the validity of high self-sufficiency ratio,but lay more emphasis upon the rationality of grain trade,and based on Ke Bingsheng's research achievement for self-sufficiency ratio,the view of grain trade in accordance with self-sufficiency ratio is proposed in this paper.Firstly,the paper defines the concept of grain and the food security,and proposes to discuss the grain security problem from national macro-level and trade angle. Secondly,based on the background of the new round WTO agriculture negotiations and China's industrial policy adjustment after entering into WTO,the paper explains the development of China's grain trade in about half century period,and emphasizes the analysis of grain import-export structure and the trade tendency of main grain varieties in the WTO context,which enables the reader to understand clearly the grain trade situation of China. Thirdly,through the description of grain trade status in Chinese foreign trade and in the world grain trade,the paper utilizes Bai Ming's Import and Export Pricing Model to analyse the pricing power status of China in world trade of major grain varieties;and by re-classification and definition of the large-coumtry effect,uses cointegration method to investigate the large-country effect of Chinese grain trade,and with the investigation results to refute Brown's viewpoint; then makes the empirical analysis of Chinese grain trade competition status with quotion of data from the FAO standard database and utilization of the RCA index,to testify that the trade pattern of exporting corn and rice and importing soybean and wheat is in line with the comparative advantage of China's grain trade situation. Finally,based on Ke Bingsheng's food self-sufficiency ratio research and the empirical analysis of Chinese grain trade status,the paper proposes China food security trade strategy.