Supply Chain Bullwhip Effect And Its Forecasting Methods Research

There are many problems existing in supply chain management, such as lack of supply, production and transport operations is not balanced, high inventory, excessively high costs. The origin of causing these questions has a lot of reasons, but one of the main reasons is the Bullwhip Effect. Bullwhip effect is a demand variation larger (variance enlarge) phenomenon on the supply chain. It is the information flow while transmitting from final customer's end to the primitive supplier's end, it is unable to realize the sharing of information effectively, make information twist and amplify step by step, has caused demand information to present greater and greater fluctuation situation.This paper mainly studied the supply chain bullwhip effect and forecasting methods. Firstly, the research of the two levels, which are the concept of supply chain and the constructure of the supply chain, explained that the bullwhip effect is the inherent characteristics of the supply chain frame. Then, it analysed the harm of the bullwhip effect through the comparison of "supply chain bullwhip effect" and "bullwhip used by cowboy", conluded that the supply chain bullwhip effect is the adverse consequence caused by the accumulation of energy among the transmission of information through all levels of the supply chain. Meanwhile, from Beer Game,the paper demonstrated four causes of bullwhip effect,such as demand forecasts, the degree of information sharing, the supply chain level, lead time. Since then, it established a two echelons supply chain model composed of retailer and manufacture. This paper analysed the three forcasting methods' impact to the bullwhip effect, which are the minimum mean square error, moving average, exponential smoothing. On this basis, the author gives a decision-making principle to help the manager chose the more advatage one among the three forecasting methods in accordance with the the enterprise instance. Finally, using the model constructed before, this paper analysed the a biscuit enterprise supply chain empirical analysis, and gave the bullwhip effect reductionCountermeasures on improving the data reliability and forecasting accuracy.