A Positive Study On The Rural-Urban Income Disparity In Yunnan

This thesis is a positive study on Yunnan's rural-urban income disparity. In first, the author analyzes the status in quo of rural-urban income disparity and forecasts its development trend. Then the positive study is followed. The positive analysis firstly studies the relation among the rural-urban income and the economic development, and makes a quantitative analysis on the disparity between rural and urban people in sharing the fruits of economy development; secondly, the author analyzes the status in quo of dual-structured economy in Ynnnan, chooses relevant elevents and estimates their impacts via econometric model; thirdly, this thesis makes an analysis on the relation between rural-urban income disparity and human capital disparity. Having done these analysis, the author makes some suggestions. The main conclusions and policies are as follows.1. conclusions(1) The rural-urban income disparity in Yunnan is quite large, which is larger than the whole disparity in China. Furthermore, the disparity is growing larger and larger, which is proved by our forecast with ARIMA model.(2) We make a Granger Causality test and Cointegration test on the rural and urban income with the economy development. We find: first, rural income has been slowly and steadily growing since reform and opening up, by contrast, the growth of urban income is rapid but volatile; Second , the GDP and rural income's Granger Causality, the GDP and urban income's Granger Causality are all unilateral, and the GDP and urban income' Granger Causality is only opproximatively 10% level significant; rural income and urban income are all not Granger Causality of GDP development. The third, the relation between rural income and GDP is a Cointegration relation, so is the relation between urban income and GDP, but the income elasticity of GDP on urban income is larger than rural income.(3) The change from rural-urban dual-structured economy to rural-urban integration has not completed, on the contrary, the status is becoming serious. It is proved that rural-urban dual-structured economy, especially dual mechanisms, is an important factor to rural-urban income disparity. rural-urban income disparity is passively related with the ratio of agricultural productivity and non-agricultural productivity, positively related with the ratio of rural-urban income elasticity of output; the relation between Rural-Urban income disparity and the ratio of rural-urban family members fed by one labor force does not match our theoretical hypothesis, so does rural industry development.(4) The urban-rural human capital disparity is obvious, which is an important factor to Rural-Urban income disparity. We make a Cointegration test on urban-rural human capital disparity and rural-urban income disparity. It's proved that the relation between rural-urban income disparity and the disparity of rural-urban medical and health expenditure is a Cointegration relation, so is the disparity of rural-urban income and expenditure on culture, education and entertainment.2. Suggestion(1) We must pay great attention to rural-urban income disparity, take it as a long-term task, take countermeasures to reduce rural-urban income gap.(2) We must Coordinate rural-urban economic and social development, push forward rural economic and social development, make dual-structured economy change into rural-urban integration. Specially, we must increase agricultural input, making traditional agriculture transform to modern agriculture; promote the industrialization of agriculture, rural industrialization and rural urbanization process, developing rural economy; create favorable conditions, promoting rural surplus labor transferring to non-agricultural industries and towns.(3) Promote rural human capital accumulation, reducing rural-urban human capital gap. First, the government officer and rural people must change their mind, pay more attention to human capital accumulation; secondly, increasing fiscal educational expenditure, we must innovate education investment mechanism, promoting the development of rural education; third, we need to greatly develop rural vocational and technical education, and so as adult education and rural labor force training; Finally, we need to improve rural social endowment insurance system, and the new-type rural cooperative medical care system, need to expand the coverage of social security.