Study On Early Warning Of Financial Crisis In Real Estate Company

In recent years, the asset size of the real estate industry growth faster in our country, At the same time, the macro control of real estate industry is strengthening, this makes the financial crisis in real estate industry is gradual increase. How to monitor the financial crisis of the real estate business become a social problem recently.Firstly, the thesis analysis the definitions, features, functions and the establishment of principles of the financial crisis early warning system in the real estate business on the basis of summarizing the research results in domestically and foreign. Secondly, the thesis analysis the financial early warning indicators, and select financial early warning indicators in the real estate business; And then through evaluate the common early warning model, the thesis use discriminant analysis and principle components analysis established the early warning model:Discriminant Analysis Model and Principle Components Analysis Model.At the part of empirical study, this thesis chooses 8 stocks industrious listed real estate companies from Stock Exchange of Shanghai and Shenzhen as research samples. Based on introducing the ratios of financial and cash flow as prediction variables, it adopts the real financial data before 3 years that the company outbreak financial crisis, and uses of single-variable T test to filter the early warning indicators and finally selects 10 remarkably distinguished financial indicators as the early warning indicators. It is noted that the two models can get relatively accurate prediction, but the first Model is more precise, simple and feasible in practice than the other, which comprises more information by contrast.At last, the thesis presents the question of how to prevent financial crisis in the real estate business, it is the establishment of a financial crisis early warning system and at the same time strengthen the internal management of real estate enterprises.