Research On The Financial Crisis Early Warning Model Of Listed Companies

In fierce market competition, corporations are facing gigantic risk. How to test and forecast the financial risks of corporations becomes an important component of the risk management of enterprises. Hence, it is necessary for enterprises to establish efficient, practical and sensitive risk forewarning system.There are six chapters in this thesis. The first chapter is introductions to sum up the purpose, the significance and the framework of content. The second chapter talks about the definition of financial risk and the reasons of financial risk produced in our listed companies. In the third chapter, some important theories of financial forewarning system are reviewed. In the fourth chapter, the financial crisis earlyWarning model of the listed companies is built up. In this chapter, eighty manufacturing companies are selected from our listed companies as sample (including 40 ST companies and 40 normal companies), according to the practical situation of our listed companies, select fifteen indexes on the first step., after correlational analysis, finally decide to select six indexes, use discriminant to establish the model of financial early warning. On the whole, the model of this article has higher accurate rate in the respect of forecasting the possibility of the financial crisis. It is convinced that the model take into certain effect on the early warning and precaution of financial crisis of our companies .The fifth chapter give a conclusion of the model, and the applied prospect. The six chapter is about the precaution and settlement of financial risk.