China's Urban Housing Is Moderate To Protect Large-scale Study

Along with fast development of the urbanization in our country, rapid urban population growth, quickening the pace of urban house commercialization and fast rising of the housing price, the mid and low earning social stratum is often unable to solve the housing problem or the improve the housing conditions on his own. Therefore, how to construct a scientific and reasonable housing guarantee system and how to solve the housing problems of mid and low earning families is a vital realistic problem which affects the building of a harmonious society in our country. However, the housing guarantee scale will have enormous influence on the society: if the housing guarantee scale is too small, the basic housing conditions of quite a few low income and the lowest income families will hardly be improved, which affects the stabilization of society; On the other hand, an oversized housing guarantee scale will increase the burden of our government seriously, which also affects further consummation of the housing market. Therefore, a housing moderate guarantee scale should be determined on the basic of clear recognition of the economy in our country and the background of shelter development.Based on social security theory, fair assignment theory and housing filtration theory, etc, with the experience of Britain, US, Singapore and other nations in constructing housing guarantee system serving as a reference, this paper combines with our country's actual conditions closely, summarizes the enlightenment to our country's housing guarantee system and provides powerful support for the housing moderate guarantee scale.There are many relative factors influencing the housing guarantee scale. From three angles of government's supplies ability, residents' demands and the housing market conditions, this paper has selected 10 targets to overall evaluation. With the historical data of 1998-2006 and the method of grey interrelated analysis, various factors are quantitatively analyzed, which influence the housing guarantee scale. With five major effective factors selected, this paper constructs GM (1, 6) model of our country's housing moderate guarantee scale. The computed results indicated that GM (1, 6) model can be used in calculating the housing guarantee scale with high precision.To accurately forecast the housing moderate guarantee scale, taking Kunming as an example, this paper establishes the systems synthesis forecast model with grey system theory, including the housing moderate guarantee scale GM (1,5) model and four major effecting factor's GM (1,1) model, and forecasts the housing moderate guarantee scale in Kunming for a period of time in the future. The comparative analysis between the model's forecasted results and the fundamental research result illustrates: the in this article used forecasting method is correct, the model is scientific and reasonable and has high reference value to the determination of urban house moderate guarantee scale.