Research On Adjustment Problem Of Industrial Structure Based On Stochastic Optimization Model

Population,environment and evolution are becoming more and more attractive around the world and also a global problem restricting every country's sustainable development. UNCED expounded the conception of sustainable development for the first time in ((our common future)) in 1987 and got the international acceptance. The essential of that is the accordance in economic evolution, social stabilization, resource utilization and circumstance protection. Whether China can succeed in sustainable develop stratagem is not only because a deeper step in economic innovation but yet the adjustment and improvement in industrial structure. Rational industrial structure is groundwork to gallop and start to get into a benign circular of sustainable development for China.Based on the sustainable development of China and research on industry structure methods by previous academicians, in this paper, a stochastic optimized model is set up for China's Economic Growth and Industrial Structure adjustment. Concretely speaking, I choose exhaust gas, waste water and rubbish as stochastic variables, economic growth, change of employment, resource consuming as programming goals, and consumption,capital,imports and exports,department balance and producing ability as restriction, all of which form this stochastic optimization model. And considering of realization of China, demonstration is made in three industries. Five parts consists in this paper: the first chapter is the actuality of quantity research in industry structure; the second one is theory and methods of optimizing; the third is stochastic programming model; the fourth is an demonstration for China's industry structure; the last is expectation for research.The model using section data in 2002 optimize industrial structure of 2003 in four instances, three of which are set up with separate goal of economic growth, change of employment, resource consuming and the last is considering all of them. The results show: the fact is so according with the precept only for economic develop of the four results in this paper; GDP increasing in the most reasonable project results is tally with the international authority; and the other results get the logical explanation. So the method in this paper is competent for forecasting the rational condition of industry structure in a year; carrying out the optimizing condition for countries or areas; finding some valuable inclusion about how to develop every industry by model contrast in some industry sorts.