Design Of Enterprises' Financial Early-warning Index System In Automobile Industry

Marketable economy with intense competition also causes the enterprise to face with a bigger risk and crisis while to bring the opportunity to the enterprise. Early warning management, as an innovative theory of risk response, its importance is shown especially out day by day. It is very important to realize the signal of the financial crisis early and recognize the financial risk of enterprise, which enables the operator take the effective action to prevent bankruptcy while the financial crisis appears sprouting. Therefore, researching on finance early-warning system has not only the theoretically value, but also has the instructive function to financial control practice for enterprise. Finance early-warning index system is the foundation of establishing the finance early-warning system. They can reveal and reflect the risk that enterprises exist fully and can play an irreplaceable role in the precaution and judgment of the risk.On the foundation of reviewing enterprise finance early-warning research, the thesis proposed that utilizes the financial index in the financial early-warning. To apply the financial index to the financial early-warning of the microscopic economy subject and its origin is in the cycle undulatory theory and financial early-warning theory. The first part of the thesis has expounded the cycle undulatory theory and financial early-warning theory. The cycle undulatory theory tells us that there is certain periodicity in economical development. In the foundation of cycle undulatory theory, the financial early-warning theory founded the financial early-warning index and using them to monitor economic operation cycle fluctuation of the economic subject. The thesis synthesizes these two viewpoints and introduces the financial index into the enterprises' early-warning system. For constructing early-warning system, choosing early-warning index to establish early-warning index system was the foundation for setting up financial early-warning model. In order to setting up early-warning index system which accords with industrial features, the thesis, in the second part, carry on the analysis of systematic science to the development environment, industry life cycle and financial characteristic of this industry's enterprise. Construct the characteristic index system of the financial risk by analyzing every index which represents the financial risks and adhering to the principle of highlighting the enterprise's potential risk in an all-round way, thus offer the foundation for establishing the financial early-warning index system. In order to set up the financial early-warning index system suiting to the auto industry characteristic of our country, in the third part, this thesis has carried on the Empirical Analysis. The thesis chose sixteen Automobile Industry companies as the sample and took the 2003-2005 financial report as the material, carried on the Grey-relation Analysis using grey system software, chose the financial index that passed the examining as the key early-warning indicators to construct the financial individual index system. And by analyzing the type of early warning index, establish the automobile Industry financial early-warning index system in the end.The thesis makes some exploring in setting up the early-warning index system suiting to the characteristic of the automobile industry. Introduce the gray incidence theory into the choice of the financial early-warning index on the basis of considering the automobile industry's characteristic in an all-round way, and attempt to enrich the scientific nature in the result of choosing the early warning index through using the gray related method of system. According to the measuring result, there are very strong positive correlation relations between every financial risk characteristic index and financial risk. According to analysis result, 26 risk characteristics possess the characteristic of the early warning index, moreover, through the analysis of the financial index type, set up the stereoscopic systems of financial early warning index which adapt to the Automobile Industry enterprise.