Analyze On Trend Of Inflation Or Deflation In China And Research On Policy Choose

The problems,which concerned about whether inflation or deflation,and whether china's economy will trend to overheated or trend to cooling in future,and how to choose the china's economic policy,ware so important that have rise a great argued in the field of academic and policy,the people bank of china,which is the central bank of china, in charge of the monetary policy setting and financial stabilization of china,can't set the argument aside.As a employee of the central bank of china,the author tried to do some research in the field of the above problem,and do some advice for service of monetary policy.the article can divide into six chapters.in first chapter the author introduced some involved economic conception.in second chapter the author excerpt the reports of the State Statistical Bureau of China and the World Bank to analyze the running of the current china's economy.in third chapter the author through the method of contrast and demonstration to analyze the trend of china's economy in future.according to above analysis,some conclusion would be draw in the fourth chapter,and then the author submit some fundamental principles of macroscopic economic regulation and control in fifth chapter.in the last chapter,some macroscopic economic regulation and control method would be submit for service of Chinese Macroscopic Economic Policy.the innovation of the article included the author find that difference judgment in China's economy usually caused by whether refer the core Consumer Price Index or no,and the author was the first man to analyze the inflation and deflation by means of monopoly theory and price-control theory and arbitrage theory and financial-risk theory.finally, the author draw a conclusion that china's economy having a pressure of inflation in short-term but having a pressure of deflation in long-term,according the conclusion the author made some suggestion,which is helpful for reference of macroscopic economic regulation and control,that also have important realistic meaning.