| It is a broadly concerned, not only on the theory but in practice, study topic in Technology Management field that how to setup investment strategy of R&D project under uncertainty conditions. Due to R&D project is a kind of long term and strategic basic investment one, it faces a variety of uncertainties and decision-making flexibilities. This paper shows the method of investment decision evaluation, detailing the general concept, evaluation basis & method, risk estimation and analysis on the decision of investment. Traditional quantitative evaluation methods normally lose potency to it. By taking all kinds of uncertainties on consideration, Real Options theory can provides more flexibility to investment decision-making process, so it attracted great interest from academic field.This paper takes a foreign investment project of Magna Donnelly (Shanghai) Auto Technology Co. Ltd as an example. The potential profit and risks showed on this paper is calculated and estimated according to 5 year Sales Forecast and current marketing situations via the method of investment decision evaluation. Meanwhile, it lists the source and the capability of reimbursement.The purpose of this paper is that the method of financial profit evaluation and risk estimation can be a scientific judge tool in national projects such as investment increase, facility movement or enlargement, re-arrange localization, to avoid blindness, to optimize profit of the investment. |
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