A Study Of Risk Investment Project Evaluation Based On B-S Real Option Pricing Model

In recent years，the word economy has rapidly developed，science and technologyinnovation activity is increasingly frequent. At this point, risk investment based ontechnology innovation is becoming very important. Risk investment project evaluation isthe most important step in risk investment decision. Risk investment has its own uniquecharacteristics. Traditional project valuation method cannot measure the future uncertaintyof risk investment project and the management flexibility of risk investors’ flexibledecision-making. Real options method can make up for the inadequacy of traditionalproject valuation, and it has been one of the key researches in the field of venture capitalproject evaluation recently.There are two kinds of basal real option model: B–S model and binary tree model. Thetwo models also exist insufficiency. B-s model requires deep knowledge of mathematics,and the premise is very strict. Binary tree model will have a lot of computing workload, andthe calculation results are not very accurate. At the same time, the two models cannotcalculate the extent that the real option value can be realized. Therefore, this articleintroduces the theory of fuzzy mathematics, trying to find some breakthrough.This article will research the content for risk investment project evaluation. First of all,this article will introduce the theory of real options, compare the theory of real options withthe traditional project valuation methods and point out its advantages and deficiencies inrisk investment project evaluation. Secondly, this article will introduce the relevantknowledge of risk investment projects, analysis the option type of risk investment project.Then, this paper will combine fuzzy mathematics, deduces fuzzy B-S real option pricingmodel and take the comprehensive evaluation results as the membership in the model.Finally, according to the characteristics of venture investment project, this paper willstructure suitable application framework for B-S fuzzy real option pricing model, andthrough the concrete example to demonstrate the effectiveness of fuzzy B-S model.