Risk Analysis And Management Of BOT Project With Real Option Method

With the rapid development of expressway in the conutry,limited funds have been unable to meet the need of construction. In order to resolve growing conflicts between the infrastructure construction and the fund shortage,BOT as a new project financing model,have be used more and more in the field of expressway construction for promoting the rapid development of national economy.Expressway BOT project has the extended nature on time and space,additionally,effects of internal factors and external environment on that are complex.Therefore,it is necessary to carry out a study on BOT construction project risk analysis and its countermeasures.On the basis of successful researches at home and abroad,make the following research work:1.Based on the theory of BOT financing fund and risk management,carry out a characteristic analysis of construction project risk under the BOT model,preparing for later study;2.1n the course of research on risk assessment,real option method of scientific and advanced nature is proved by the way of comparative analysis between real option method and traditional NPV method used on the example,which can estimate the maximum potential benefits existed in construction projects under the condition of uncertainty influencing factors,providing a reliable basis for decision-making;3. n the part of case study,the validity of this method is fully checked taking Changzhu expressway BOT project as an example.