| The international oil market has been undergoing drastic fluctuations in recent years. The impact of oil price to the world's economy has attracted many experts and scholars, and the research on petroleum-economics has become a focus of attention. What are the real reasons for the upswing of the oil-price? Whether supply and demand are the most important factor as of old? Based on the two questions, the paper tries to hold the essential rules of the oil-market through the analysis of the oil-price. Also we want to table a proposal to China.This essay discusses the structure, inner-fluctuated-factors, actuality and intending tendency synthetically on the basis of a lot of existed literature. Firstly, the paper divides the influencing ingredients into four parts: supply factor, demand factor, especial attribute factor and other short-term factors. Every factor will be introduced detailedly. Then, this paper describes the international oil-market and domestic oil-market in different aspects. After that, the association analysis among the oil-price, supply and demand is probed into through the methods of cointegration test, Granger causality test based on VEC model and impulse response function based on VAR model. The result of quantitive study is quite helpful to explain the impact of them. Finally we will give some advises to our country.The main innovations of this essay lies on the following two aspects: firstly, aimed at the characteristic of the fluctuation on oil-price, this paper divides the relative factors into four parts, then makes estimation respectively on every factor during this period. Secondly, on the process of empirical analysis Granger causality test based on VEC model is introduced to increase the reliability of econometric models. And we get a conclusion that appeared in many literatures at the same time nobody can prove it depending on empirical analysis. |
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