| Nowadays,world crude oil price usually fluctuates frequently.The high oil Price further makes it as a global concerned focus.By reviewing many literatures related to oil price fluctuation,this paper found that there were various comments of such field,while they just mainly concentrated on the research of oil supply,lacking of a comprehensive investigation on crude oil pricing mechanism.Therefore,this paper used methods of econometrical analysis and empirical study to perform a thorough study on this topic.The conclusion of this work are as follows:First of all, the impulse response equation,Granger causality testing and the regarding methods were employed in this article to analyze the influence of speculation in the crude oil futures market and other non-fundamental factors on the oil price.The result shows that speculation is only a follower of oil price fluctuation.In the short-term, speculative activity really impacts oil price,but the influence on oil price's long-term trend is very small.In addition,qualitative analysis as well as the co-integration test were adopted to indicate that there were various factors limiting OPEC.In terms of the oil demand structure,some simple charts and econometric analysis methods were used,which results also display a closed relationship between crude oil demand and economy development.Based on the above analysis,the paper set up a macro-equilibrium model to make a further comprehensive study on the crude oil price fluctuation.It also employed such model to analyze the influence of world GDP,inventory factor,price elasticity of crude oil supply and demand on the international oil price.The results show that crude oil price is vulnerable to up and down by the outside impact as it's lacking of price elasticity between oil supply and demand due to its special structure.Further more,economic's growth or recession would be the main driving force for oil price fluctutation since GDP is more sensitive by the crude oil demand. |
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