The Study Of Vegetable Price Fluctuation Based On Cobweb Theory:Comparative Analysis Of Supply And Demand And Circulation In Dalian Market

As the foundation of our national economy, agriculture is closely related to people’s livelihood, and has been the focus of attention of the government and community. However, since the second half of year2009, we experience the ups and downs of a wide range of agricultural product’s price. Also, as the second largest agricultural industry, vegetable industry could not escape the influence of the fluctuation. The two phenomenons of "Vegetable’s low price will hurt farmers" and "Vegetable’s high price will hurt citizens" often occur alternating or even simultaneously in a short period of time, which greatly affect the vital interests of farmers and thousands of consumers.By reviewing the past research literature, I found that researches of vegetable price fluctuation have become more and more. However, scholars disagree on the root cause of the vegetable price fluctuation, some insist on the "supply and demand are the root cause", and some insist on "circulation is the root cause", and respectively use the Cobweb Theory and the Circulation Theory as secondary evidence. Yet there is no comparison analysis on the supply and demand and the circulation which effect the vegetable price fluctuation, and then come to the conclusion of the study. Therefore, I select six typical vegetable crops of eggplant, cucumber, tomatoes, celery, spinach and green peppers of Dalian vegetable market, as the object of this study. By analyzing these six typical vegetable crops’vegetable price fluctuation, as well as the comparative analysis of the supply and circulation on the impact of vegetable price fluctuation, in order to identify the root cause that lead to vegetable price fluctuation, and further targeted policy recommendations to stabilize the price of vegetables.In this paper, I use the case study method, combined with observation, depth interviews, content analysis and comparative analysis. First of all, on the basis of reviewing the relevant literature, which corresponds to the specific circumstance of the vegetable price fluctuation in China, I propose the research questions; Secondly, in the part of study design, I explain the scientific and reliability of this paper from the research method, the research object the data source, to pave the way for the below research; Third, I use Dalian City as my example, describ six typical vegetables’trend of price fluctuation during August,2011and July,2012, and the trend of price volatility in the months of February and July; Fourth, there is a detailed analysis of the composition of Dalian vegetable price, the cost of production of vegetable, as well as Dalian’ supply of vegetable in nearly two years, thereby comparative analysing the supply and circulation cost which impacts the vegetable price fluctuation; Fifth, I introduced the advanced experience of stabling the vegetable price fluctuation in the United States, European Union and Japan; Finally, combined with the above analysis and the advanced foreign experience, I proposed the policy recommendations for stabling vegetable price which suitable for China.The result of this study indicates that the imbalance between supply and demand is the root cause leading to the vegetable price fluctuation, and the circulation of vegetable is "secondary disasters". To stabilize the price of vegetable of China, the first thing to do is " stable production", on the basis of production stabitity,we then should take "stable circulation" into account, thus we can achieve an orderly and gradual implementation.The biggest innovation of this paper is to find out the root cause of the vegetable price fluctuation in recent years, by analysing the conduction mechanism of the vegetable price, and comparative analysing the supply and circulation which impact the vegetable price fluctuation. Also there are still many inadequacies, such as the relevant data is not comprehensive enough, ill-considered of the influencing factors, and this is also my problems that need to be attention of in the future writing and the direction of improvement.