The Research On The Relationship Between Electric Power Supply And Demand And Sustainable Economic Growth In China

The economy in my country has grown at a remarkable rate since Reform and Opening-up. With the rapid development of the economic, there has been a phenomenon that the supply falls behind the demand at energy, especially the demand of the power. As an advanced productive force and foundational industry, electric power plays an important part in promoting economic development and social progress, and is closely related to the development of society and economy. The paper through analyzing supply and demand of power and sustain economic growth, on the basis of"11th Five-Year"plan about saving energy and reducing consumption, combining the actual conditions of the market of power, steers it in a specific direction: under the situations of power an energy shortage, on the premise of saving energy and reducing consumption, China should do the work of planning of power and readjusting the power structure, to increase the power of the economic and social benefits system, and to promote the sustainable development of China's economy.This paper mainly deploys form several aspects:First of all, compare the relationship between China's power supply and demand and economic growth before the change in the mode of China's economic development and after. In the transformation of the mode of economic development, China's economic growth mode is extensive growth mode, this approach is high input, high energy consumption, high pollution and low output characteristics, in which traditional model of economic growth, the rapid growth of China's economy depends on much consumption of material resources to a great extent, especially for electricity consumption, increasing year by year. However, China's electricity planning has not kept pace with the economic development, and the construction of new power lags or blindly be built, the absence of a reasonable and continuity, leading to the power gap. Because of the extensive mode of economic growth led to the increasingly obvious contradictions between economic and social development and resources and the environment, the 16th CPC National Congress proposed taking a new road to industrialization. In the new mode of economic development, China try to lower the demand for electricity by adjusting existing industrial structure, and promotes national economy by improving the efficiency of the use of electricity.Secondly, analyses China's electricity supply and consumption structure and price. This paper can be obtained the following understanding by analyzing:Firstly, the structure of China's electric power supply is posed mainly by the thermal power, more than 75% of installed capacity. The supply structure on the one hand is restricted by the constraints age of coal, on the other hand produces carbon dioxide and sulphur dioxide serious, polluting the environment.Secondly, China's electricity consumption structure of the present is affected by the speed of industrial development, heavy industry and the development of the industry demanding much power led to the increase in demand for electricity, while the industrialization of the city has also aggravates the rise of the residents' power consumption.Thirdly, because China's government controls all of the electricity price in the power market, the price does not reflect the will of the real demand price signals which is transmitted to the supply side , thus the power price is unable to achieve the interaction between the power supply and demand, leading to the price mechanism weaken or even lose.In the next place, do the empirical analysis of the relationship between China's electric power supply and sustainable economic growth. First of all, analyses that China's current power level of the building can support economic development or not in the same energy consumption circumstances coefficient by forecasting China's power supply and demand in 2010. According to forecasts results, China's generating capacity will reach 4.3683 trillion kw·h by 2010, electricity demand will reach 4.4252 trillion kw·h, a deficit of 56.9 billion kw·h. This shows that it is difficult to support the sustainable economic growth in the China's current level of the construction of the power. Then analyses the relation between China's electricity supply and sustainable economic growth on the basis of saving energy in the "11th Five-Year" plan, that is, the coefficient of energy consumption changes. Through analysis it can be seen that in the "11th Five-Year Plan" period, the ratio of electricity in the energy consumption increases rapidly, leading to unit GDP energy consumption is reduced, but unit GDP power consumption increases. Therefore I forecast that China's power demand will maintain the original level in 2010. But because of the reduce of energy consumption in power industry, China's electricity supply will be increased on the basis of the original installed capacity, the power exactly fills the gap.Based on the above analysis this paper considers that: Rapid economic development has led to the sharp rise in electricity demand, but the planning of China's electric power industry development does not keep pace with economic development, leading to the power supply can not meet the need for economic development. And the key to the solution to the power shortage is achieving the energy saving goals proposed by "11th Five-Year" plan. The author puts forward China's electricity and sustainable economic growth strategy proposals: Firstly, establish a universal energy-saving awareness, to build a conservation-oriented society, and think conservation of resources electricity equally important with the development of power; secondly, promote clean coal technology relying on science, achieve the harmonious development electricity and the environment on the basis of breakthrough constrained environment for the development of electricity; Thirdly, make the price to the market, to regulate the contradiction of electricity supply-demand using price; Fourth, optimize the structure of power industrial production, constantly raise the proportion of renewable energy to generate electricity ,and reduce the proportion of coal-fired generation, develope hydropower and nuclear power vigorously, and encourage people to use new energy generation, achieving efficiency, energy conservational and clean society.