Research On Abnormal Growth Of China's Tax Revenue

China's Tax Revenue growth rate has been exceeding the GDP growth rate for more than 10 years. That is to say, Substantial growth in Tax Revenue has greatly surpassed the GDP growth rate. This phenomenon has appealled the wide attention of the Government, the academic community, the news media, as well as the whole society, on the causes of this phenomenon, reasonable and economic impact of the presence of certain arguments.Through the sequence of growth, The paper aims to explore the causes of Abnormal Growth of China's Tax Revenue based on the result of empirical analysis. Mainwhile,the paper also give us a comprehensive analysis in three perspectives: economic factors, tax policies as well as tax administration.Through the above research,this paper establishes a framework of abnomal growth rate on the theoretical level.Firstly, the paper focuses on the descriptive analysis of Tax Revenue over the years, background of the "excessive" growth, based on this analysis of China's 2000 revenue growth and major features. Secondly, it makes an empirical analysis on the revenue impact factors.Finally,it analysizes the forming mechanism of supernormal tax growth, including economic factors, tax policies and tax administration factors in the excessive growth.Based on 1994-2007 annual & quarterly data of China Tax Revenue,the paper gives a profile of Tax growth in China since 1994,which indicates that Tax Revenue Series is steady but seasonally volatile. Correlation coefficient of TAX and GDP is about 0.21 and elasticity of TAX is between 1.3 and 1.4. The results suggest that the two series are non-Cointegration, but there exists a long-term equilibrium between industrial VAT and its total profit,total amount of tax, the industrial added value. China Tax Revenue of 2008 will continue to keep a high growth rate.Basic conclusion: economic growth is the foundation of China's Tax Revenue growth, and economic growth provides the basis for revenue growth and momentum, economic growth is the driving force behind revenue growth, and in recent years the high revenue growth was primarily attributable to the rapid development of China's economy. Improving the quality of the tax collection and management is another important impetus. Empirical analysis and forecasts show that China's tax high-growth trend will be existing in a fairly long period of time.