ANN Forecast Algorithmic For Port Logistic Demand Research And Application Analyze

With the continuous and rapid developing of our national foreign trade, the seaports especially the great hinge ports have paid a more and more important role for the improvement of global economy and regional economy. The integration trend of infection between the port and the city becomes more and more obviously. Developing the modern logistics of the port is the necessary option for the improvement of economy, and the port logistic planning becomes very important for the modern logistics' development of the port city. Many great ports have made feasibilities' analyze for the construction of port's logistic system, but they always ignore the important of the logistic demand forecast.This Paper mainly study the problem how to predict the port demand logistics. Firstly the article simply introduces the basic theory of port logistics demand, including the basic concept and demand analyze of port logistics demand and so on. Secondly this paper analyzes the demanding index of port logistics and sets up the demanding forecast index system: port and hinterland regional economy index and port logistics demanding index. Finally this paper based on the introducing of ANN theory, establishes ANN model for port logistics demanding forecast and forecast the logistic demand for Lianyungang port by using qualitative forecast method and quantitative forecast method. And then makes some advices for Lianyungang on modern logistics development.This paper focuses on the port logistics demand forecast comprehensively by using the methodologies of combination of theory and demonstration, qualitative and quantitative forecast method. The intrinsic attribute of port logistics demand is revealed by forecasting logistics demand by using hinterland economy indices instead of the time series data of logistics scale volume itself. Because the relationship between regional economy and port's logistics is not linear simply, the artificial neural network (ANN) model, which has a powerful unlinear mapping function, is introduced to forecast the regional logistics demand instead of the traditional forecast tools and means.