Optimal Management Strategy Of Logistics Cham And Supply Chain Under Port-Hinterland Disruption

Supply chain globalization has promoted the growth of trade and stimulated demand of transport service.Shipping achieves the majority of global trade by value and volume.As the linking part between customer and ocean shipping,port-hinterland logistics system(PTLS)is the indispensable component of the entire logistics chain.However,PTLS could be fragile under certain unconventional events,including natural disasters and labor strike.Such events could cause a disruption of PTSL,leading to a disruption of the entire logistics chain.Numerous cases indicated that the disruption of PTLS will incur tremendous damage to the stake holders within the logistics system and the supply chain companies that rely on PTLS to accomplish cargo trade.Therefore,developing strategies of risk management against the disruption of PTLS has great practical significance.The presented paper discusses the risk management strategies against potential disruption of PTLS from the perspective of logistics chain players and supply chain players,applying both qualitative and quantitative research method.In chapter 3,a pre-event investment mechanism from the perspective of stake holders is established.Seaport operator and dry port operator are selected as the players.Several issues including optimal investment timing,investment regime and investment level are discussed.Chapter 4 and chapter 5 analyze the risk management strategies from the perspective of supply chain players.In chapter 4,we propose a model based on Sequential Statistical Decision Theory and Bayes Formula,solving an optimal single-period ordering problem.The optimal ordering problem is composed of optimal ordering timing and optimal ordering quantity.In chapter 5,we analyze the optimal ordering strategy in a multi-period problem.By defining the state of PTLS as operation state and congestion state,the problem is transferred into a Markov Decision Process.The normal ordering strategy is compared with the ordering strategy considering potential disruption of PTLS.Also,we discuss the impact of stability of PTLS to the cost of supply chain companies.The major conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)Chapter 3 establishing a pre-event investment mechanism within the logistics chain players.First in a centralized PTLS,pre-event investment should be conduct in an early stage if the disruption probability is extremely high or extremely low.Second,in a de-centralized PTLS.seaport and dry port should cooperate when it comes to pre-event investment and the cost incurred by disruption should be shared by the players when the disruption probability is low or in the middle level.If the disruption probability is high,then the investment mechanism should remain in a de-centralized mode.Third,pre-event investment is not necessarily required.The factors that decide whether or not to make investment include the disruption probability,the cost of disruption and the basic recovery capability of PTLS.Fourth,in both centralized and de-centralized system,an accurate investment decision is connected to an appropriate risk identification method.The disruption probability will impact optimal investment mode,investment timing and investment level.However,the cost of disruption only affects the optimal investment level.(2)Chapter 4 analyzes the alternative supplier strategy against potential disruption of PTLS.The presented sub-research focuses on a two-echo supply chain composed of a manufacture and an oversea supplier.The disruption of PTLS will cause a disruption of the entire logistics chain,and leads to a disruption of supply.The manufacture can cooperate with a local alternative supplier to avoid such risk.Two issues related to the ordering policy to the local supplier are solved.First,the optimal timing of ordering policy.Second,the optimal quantity of ordering policy.An empirical example is provided,showing the process of model application.In this example,we provided policy suggestion to cope with the potential of PTLS caused by typhoon.(3)In chapter 5,a multi-period ordering problem is analyzed.We define the state of PTLS as operational state and congestion state and transfer the ordering problem into a Markov Decision Process.Frist,the reliability of PTLS has a significant effect on the cost of supply chain companies.The duration of disruption is the most important factor.Second,we compare the proposed ordering strategy with normal strategy.The result is affected by the holding-penalty cost,disruption probability and duration of disruption.Third,if demand is related to the state of PTLS,the proposed strategy is more beneficial to the supply chain companies.Fourth,the maximum cargo capacity of PTLS can effectively reduce the cost of supply chain players.