The Investment Risks Analysis Of The Construction Project In View Of The Combination Of CIM Model And Monte Carlo Simulation

Making prophase evaluation of project investment risks is of much importance because of the huge economic loss caused by the negative effects of the risk factors. Currently, many models of investment risks exist with the deficiency in the determination of reliable data, consideration of the risk factors, related research between risk factors and the utilization of the static analysis,in which CIM model and Monte Carlo simulation are used in the research.In this paper, according to the characteristics of the projects, the research on the investment risks of projects is carried out based on the theories of probability, systems engineering, and simulation technique. The contents studied and conclusions drawn are as follows:1. The investment risk of projects is analyzed. From the viewpoint of project risk management and based on the research in and outside China, the main risks and characteristics of projects are summarized in a systematic and comprehensive way, and a scientific analysis is given to the theories of the investment risk.2. According to the characteristics and complexity of projects, WBS is made in the construction of the risk management system. And RBS is made according to the risk resources. Based on the corresponding risk factors and basic items of WBS, the effect of the risk on the project is analyzed.3. With the confirmation of the investment risk factors, a risk model CIM and the Monte Carlo simulation technique are combined to analyze the investment risks of projects.4. The commercial software of Crystal Ball is utilized to aid the decision- making of project investment risk. The Monte Carlo simulation method in Crystal Ball is applied to achieve the quantitative analysis of the project risk and to simulate investment risk of projects.5. A demonstration study is carried out combining with the TongTangwan project, Zhuzhou,which gives the analysis and evaluation of the project investment risk, and provides the necessary basis for decision making.Through detailed analysis, this paper proposes a new method which combines the risk model CIM and the Monte Carlo simulation technique to analyze the investment risks of the projects, and solves the problem of relations between risk factors.