| With the investment system developing diversified, the government has introduced competitive mechanism into wastewater project by degrees. Based on the rule of"Who invest, who decision, who gain income, who take the risk", the decision-maker pay more attention to investment effect and risk. In result, economic evaluation and risk analysis in project decision become more and more important, so research and application of investment risk analysis of wastewater project is significant.In this dissertation, the concepts of the project risk, investment risk analysis and the academic study and application methods were firstly summarized. Second, the overall situation of municipal wastewater treatment and Monte Carlo simulation were briefed. Then the author applied the Monte Carlo method to risk probability analysis of wastewater project, and studied simulating process, analyzed the influence of experiment times on the simulating results. Third, the Monte Carlo method was applied in the feasibility study of a wastewater project, Zhengzhou Matougang wastewater treatment plant, and the simulation of risk analysis for this plant was provided. Fourth, through further study and illation from an engineering instance of risk probability analysis which used the analogy method of Monte Carlo, a rapid simplified computational method without sampling simulating was proposed, which can be applied to evaluate approximately the probability that the project was feasible. It was deeply validated by the error analyzing that there is little difference between the results from this simplified calculation method and that from Monte Carlo simulating, and this method is feasible to be applied to the risk analysis in feasibility study extensively. Finally, it was suggested that the decision-maker should regard risk probability analysis, treat the conclusion of risk analysis rightly, and take necessary action on the conclusion of risk analysis. |
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