| More and more investors take fund as an investing and financing tool, along with the boom of fund industry. This article aims at study the methods of choosing funds. After study the process of fund's issuance, investment and profit division as well as the indexes that evaluate funds'performance, we can see that investors face uncertainty of funds'future when choosing funds, that is to say, risk exists. Methods combining both profit and risk can help investors to have a good choice. Monte Carlo Simulation use stochastic variables to speculate on results. The result from a lot of simulations is close to the actual one. The simulation can also show the risk of the objective. Based on these studies, this article evaluates funds'performs using Monte Carlo Simulation and chooses five close funds to do a demonstration. The result of the demonstration shows that Monte Carlo Simulation can analyze funds'profit and risk effectively, and it can be a reference to investors when choosing funds. |
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