Modern Forestry Enterprise's Financial Early-Warning Model And Its Application

Chinese modern forestry industry is not only a basic industry but also a public welfare undertakings, the development of modern forestry enterprises gradually attracted the more and more attention. According to the macroeconomic requirements of the national industrial development and industrial restructuring.On September 2007, the State Forestry Administration and other ministries jointly issued " forestry industry policy points ",which explicitly pointed out: The state should continue to improve and implement the national forestry policy to support leading enterprises, encourage forestry Enterprises to improve their ability to explore the international market, actively support the small and medium enterprises in line with the state of international market development and use of funds, encourage national leading forestry enterprises to use the capital markets to raise funds and expand production, support the leading enterprises meeting the requirements to list in the domestic capital market. In the context of this policy, the paper make use of the financial data of forest enterprise, focusing on building suitable financial early warning model and financial early warning system for modern China's actual conditions of the forestry enterprisesFirst of all, on the basis of relevant research of forestry financial early-warning system, this paper analysis the characteristics of modern forestry and define the connotation and extension of the modern forest enterprise, the principle of financial early-warning systems and functions are discussed ,which is based on the financial risks and the concept of financial early-warning systems.Secondly, this paper constructed the 19 financial indicators of financial early-warning system. Though the analysis of selected financial indicators, the economic significance of the financial indicators straighten out. This part is the starting point of empirical research.Again, this paper use the SPSS statistical software for statistical data processing, using the multiple discriminate analysis methods to build the model of modern forestry financial enterprise early warning-system, Z-Score model, the financial early-warning threshold is calculated and the early-warning interval is established. the accuracy of the forecast model was verified. Finally, the financial early warning system is constructed in accordance with the financial scope of application and use of methods, including financial early-warning organization ,financial data collection and transmission systems, financial risk analysis system and financial risk management systems.In addition, the paper also analyzed the deficiencies of the modern forestry enterprise's financial early-warning system, and made the recommendations of the follow-up study on financial early-warning system.