Financial Crisis Early Warning Of Enterprise Under The New Delisting System

In 2012, the Commission released the new delisting system, NJTC became the first delisting central enterprises in 2014. In this paper, NJTC as an example, conducts the research to the enterprise the delisting system under the financial crisis, aims to study how to establish and improve the listing Corporation's financial crisis early warning mechanism. In order to explore the central enterprises listing Corporation, especially consecutive losses how to avoid delisting.This paper mainly adopts the empirical analysis method, using the single variable and multi variable financial early warning model, to research single variable index of the financial crisis on the response of central enterprises then select the Z-Score model to forecast the financial crisis. Firstly, cursory analysis the theory of financial risk, financial crisis, financial early warning, Involved the main financial indicators of financial early warning model, and briefly introduced the functions and characteristics of the enterprise financial early warning mechanism.Secondly comparative analysis the characteristics of enterprise financial crisis under the background of the new delisting system. The NJTC as an example, analysis the current situation of the development of shipping industry, and discuss the manifestations and causes of enterprise financial crisis in theory. Thirdly, choose NJTC financial data back from 2010 to 2013, analysis of single variable index according to the 13 financial indicators of 4 categories of indicators in the financial situation of enterprises, found that the worse year by year, there is a serious financial crisis of enterprises. Use Z-Score model to analysis the multiple regression, predicted that NJTC have the risk of delisting. the prediction results agree with the reality of the situation. According to the Z-Score model to test CHFH and COSCO financial problems, The results show that CHFH has serious financial crisis, in line with the reality of the situation. In fact, CHFH has been suspended, measures are being taken to remedy, COSCO are still have financial crisis, although its way thro ugh the sale of shares to remove ST, but net profit in the first two quarters of 2014 are still negative, still need to focus on the financial situation. Therefore, The establishment of a financial early warning model, can reflect the financial crisis can effectively curb the adverse development, enterprise can through the main business profit to achieve sustainable development. Listing Corporation financial early warning, monitoring, and more from the key indicators of financial early warning model of diversification, strengthen the management of cash flow, to consider corporate governance factors and so on, and constantly improve the financial early warning system.The value of this research is that proof of financial early warning model to predict crisis, the latest data can enhance the credibility, enterprises according to the data of production and management, so as to resolve the financial crisis. This paper also has some shortcomings: one is the small sample size, selection of reference delisting policy only two years of financial data; two is to separate enterprise only to the classical model; three is the only test of two samples, there are certain limitations...