Study On Method Of Urban Land Price Early-warning

With the quickening of the socialist market economy, land market plays a more and more important part in socialism market system. In recent years, because the increase of land investment was too fast in some areas, the land supply was excessive, the land price rose rapidly, some abnormal phenomena such as"overheated","abnormal heat"and"structural problem"appeared in some degree and serious risk existed in land market. For the reasons above, it's important theoretical and practical significance to set up the early-warning system of land market.There are two parts that compose this thesis: the discussion on the methods of the land prices early-warning system; the establishment and operation of Chengdu land prices early-warning system. The discussion on method contains: at the index setting step, on the basis of analyzing the conceptions, theories and models that could be used, indexes are selected not only based on the objectives of the evaluation system, principles to choose indexes, meaning of the indexes but also by comparing different kinds of indexes; at the index weight setting step, the thesis combine factor analysis with Time Difference Relevance Analysis and Principal Component Analysis; at the index early-warning critical point setting step, the method of 3δis used to set up the standards that is intend to evaluate the land market; Finally, the evaluation system is founded. Based on the methods above, the thesis establishes the Chengdu land market early-warning system, operates the system by using the market information of Chengdu house land prices, gives pre-warnings of 2007 and 2008 of house land market in Chengdu and corresponding suggestions.