Ganzhou Residential Land Price Monitoring And Early Warning

With the vigorous development of the land market,land is playing an increasingly important role in urban construction and national economy. Land prices is closely related with people's daily life,at the same time,regulation of the land market is an important part of national macro-control. In recent years, land prices of some places shows the trend of excessive growth, risen dramatically,which causes the concern of the the whole society. Research of the development trend of land prices and timely release of land price intelligence information can not only provide the basis for government to make appropriate macroeconomic control policy,provide reference for the companys to make investment decision,but also significance for the sustainable healthy and rapid development of the entire national economy.This research aims to monitor the fluctuations of land price in time by using the theories and methods of economic early warning and real estate market early warning from both home and abroad to reveal the theories and methods of monitoring and early warning of urban land price. This paper is divided into five parts:The part of introduction makes a detailed analysis of the research's background and significances,and summs up the research dynamics of theories and technologies of monitoring and early warning,and carrys out the main contents and technological route. The second part divides residential land of center city of Ganzhou into 6 levels,20 sections to set up dynamic monitoring system of it's. The third part analyzs emphatically the process and method of early warning of urban land price, it also makes a case study of the early warning of housing market of Ganzhou city on the basis of available achievements. According to the present status of the land market and results of early warning of Ganzhou city area,the fourth part puts forward some measures and countermeasures to construct and manage the land market of Ganzhou city. The fifth part is the conclusion of the whole paper.The main conclusions of this paper are listed as follows: The growth ratio fluctuaions of the residential land price of Ganzhou is a little choppy.For example, with the property real estate market in 2007, land price rises sharply, reaches the deviation of 131%,while the land market appears super-cooling phenomenon in 2009; Monitoring of the dynamic monitoring system shows that the alarm solution of the residential land price of Ganzhou in 2005 is in a reasonable level, but from 2006 to 2009 moderate alarm occurres; Next few years, residential land prices of Ganzhou will continue to grow, but the fluctuates will not be so intense , tend to smooth.