Apply And Study On Early-warning System Of Real Estate

Real estate industry as a pillar of our national economy, the market is cyclical and volatile operating characteristics. The operation of the market's "hot" and "cooling" will bring great negative impact on the development of the national economy. In recent years there are "overheated " phenomenon in some parts of the regional real estate market. The price of building rose quickly,snapping up land and housing is happened in some cities,which may bring most impact on the region and the country. Fluctuations in the real estate market may be give other industries especially the financial sector a grate impact. Therefore, it is especially necessary for us to establish a scientific and effective early warning system of the real estate market.This paper includes two parts. At the first part we choose statistic method on the basis of analyzing the concepts, the theories and the methods that can be used.It analyzes the characteristic and the reasons of the fluctuation of real estate in china. At the index setting step,14 indexes are selected not only based on the principles that the real estate early-warning system must be have but also comparing different kinds of indexes; at the index weight setting step, the thesis combine factor analysis with Time Difference Relevance Analysis and Principal Component Analysis; at the index early-warning critical points setting set, the thesis adopt systematic method; finally it is the alarm forest by single indexes and synthesized index. At last the paper used the data more then 10 years from 1996 to 2007 to analyze the situation of Shijiazhuang and gave some suggestion for real estate companies.