The Research And Predication On Urban Housing Value

Urban housing which has been one of the most necessarily part in city system is a place which people can live in. It is impossible for the housing value existing without the influence of the whole city system. Housing value will change with city development, social reform, technology improvement, the change of human living style and the change of macro-economic situation.This paper considers that housing value is consisted of location cost, agriculture chance cost, production cost, and housing exploitation profit. First, with a limitation of the ideal city suppositions, the paper establish the linear urban housing valuefunction P=p₀-k·x with city space distance as its independent variable; analysisthe way some elements influence urban housing value, like dweller income, traffic cost, time chance value, public establishment, air pollution, sound pollution, inflation; and give deep research of the housing value in the marginal area of city. Then relaxing the limitation of the ideal city suppositions and learning from the urban economics research method that more care about the city space and lean on city' economics development, the paper establish the non-linear urban housing value functionP(x)=-t/i∫1/H(x)dx,0≤x≤a to figure out the housing price according to the citysocial development level—housing value. It improves the method that using the market housing price index to judge whether the urban housing marketing is healthy.Then, the gray system theory has been introduced into the non-linear urban housing value function. It help to establish the GM (1,1)-non-linear urban housing value predicating model (?)(x)=-(?)/(?)∫1/(?)(x)dx,0≤x≤(?). This model extends the actionof the non-linear urban housing value function. It's to direct the housing price in next year, but not to checkout whether the housing price was rational in this year. With this advantage, it can help the government making macroscopic adjustments and controls policies. It also can help the real estate corporation giving a rational price to sell its house.Taking zhengzhou city as an example, this paper compute zhengzhou's housing value distributing function in 2006 year and checkout whether the housing market is healthy. Then, it predicate zhengzhou's housing value distributing in 2007 year, and analyses the way zhengzhou's housing value changes with the interest rate fluctuation.