Study On The Evaluation Methods Of Credit Risk In Commercial Bank Of China

Measurement of credit risk is the most important and basic job to the management of credit risk. Whether the result of measurement is accurate which is related with the quality of follow-up work of the risk management directly, and it has an important impact to the survival and development of banking institutions ultimately. How measure the credit risk of commercial banks accurately, scientifically and objectively, has become the stringent focus to banking institutions, government regulators. Facing of the current situation of academic research and practice of china's credit risk measurement, based on the different standpoint, this paper research the measurement methods of commercial banks' credit risk from interior and whole bank two levels, which has strong theoretical and practical significance.Firstly, this paper describe the concept of credit risk, characteristics, cause and related theories, and further reveal the content of credit risk measurement.Secondly, it introduces the traditional measurement methods and modern models, and evaluates its own characteristics, using scope and advantages and disadvantages. On the basis of seeing about the applicability of all the mainstream models to the credit risk measurement of china's commercial banks comprehensively, this paper select KMV model as the one to measure the china's banks internal credit risk.Then, it analysis its feasibility and advantages that is used for the indicator of china's overall credit risk forecast through introducing the non-performing loan ratio, and establishes forecasting model with gray systematic theorem .In the final, in accordance with the established two models, this paper does the empirical research. From empirical results, the model has a good reality adaptability and practicality.