Research On Financial Crisis Prediction Of Listed Companies Included Internal Corporate Governance Index

Under the environment of market economy, enterprises face huge risk and uncertainty, financial crisis early warning is an important analysis mechanism of enterprise to guard against financial risks, to improve the enterprise management and improve company performance has a great role in promoting.In the rapid development of securities market and the increasing improvement of the overall operating performance of listed companies at the same time.Due to the imbalance in the structure of corporate governance and company management ability is not strong and the management level is not high, some listed companies in the fierce market competition lead to company business strategy and investment decision-making errors, the production and business operation management chaos, company business performance decline year by year, the company was in financial crisis. Therefore, how to make use of financial indicators and non-financial indicators such as internal governance factors to establish mathematical model, the company was in financial crisis early warning, the possibility of size became the management authorities investors, creditors and other stakeholders of listed companies concerns.This article through combining the theoretical research and empirical research method, based on financial data to the introduction of non-financial factors, especially the company’s internal governance of the financial crisis early warning of the relevant literature to comb, and starting from the theory of internal governance, choosing four factors included ownership structure, board characteristics, the characteristics of the board of supervisors and the management structure, specific analysis the company internal governance factors and the relationship between the financial crisis warning, mining the deep cause of the financial crisis. On the basis of the theory, based on Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares in 2007-2014 of 235 for the first time by ST listed companies and the matching of 235 normal financial companies as samples, considering that the occurrence of financial crisis is a gradual process, this paper USES three years preceding the financial crisis(T-3) and(T-2) data, respectively based on pure financial indicators and the introduction of the company internal governance indicators of the financial crisis early warning model, to analyze and demonstrate the accuracy of two models of the financial crisis early warning.The results show that the traditional financial information to the company whether occurs financial crisis has a certain role, but the information is not covered within the company governance information prediction effect of financial crisis, into the company internal governance factors of financial crisis warning model can really improve the accuracy of the early warning. Equity structure in the first big shareholder equity percentage are negatively related with financial crisis; Top ten shareholders holding the sum was positively related with financial crisis; Executives shareholding and executive incentives are negatively related with financial crisis. In addition, the financial crisis two years ago(T-2) data prediction effect will be better than that of the three years(T-3) preceding the financial crisis, the data shows that the near year of financial crisis on financial crisis early-warning accuracy is higher.