Empirical Research On Effects Of Trade Balance From RMB Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuating

Chinese trade surplus is speedily increasing recent years, followed by the high pressure of RMB foreign exchange rate appreciation in international society. In order to lessen trade friction, ameliorate bilateral trade relation, RMB reformed foreign exchange system in July in 2005, which is called floating rate. This reform drives RMB to be internationalized, meanwhile whose effects on trade balance to be the focus at home and abroad.This paper selects China and its 15 trade partners as the research objects, and the research period is from August 2005 to November 2006, and the data includes foreign exchange rate, trade balace, domestic GDP and price consume index. This paper employs both description and empirical methods to analyse the relation between China and its main trade partners. The empirical results indicates one trade partner has no evident relation between bilateral rate and trade balance fluctuating; two of which have no obvious relation in the long term, but have relation in the short term. In addition, other 12 trade partners have obvious effects from rate fluctuating both from the long term and short term, whereas resulting different affecting degree, exsisting different "J Curve" effects to some extent.RMB exchange rate is emerging its significant increasingly at present and in the future. As a currency RMB should sway its lever to opertate market, adjusting domestic economy and balancing international trade.