Bubbles Research On Chinese Stock Market

The research of stock market bubble is the forefront of the field of the contemporary economics. Stock market bubbles are the important factor to induct the bubble economy and the continuously inflating stock market bubbles are an omen to the bubble economy. So systematically researching into the stock market bubbles theory has great significance and practical values to the healthy development of the stock market and the economy.At the beginning of 2007, with the stock index breakthrough in 3000, There is an outbreak discussion about whether there is a bubble in the domestic stock market or not, the academic began to pay more attention to stock market bubble. However, domestic studies in this field has quoted and adopt foreign results mainly. Articles mostly use qualitative research methods, quantitative research is relatively rare, hasn't been into the whole system. Although economists in developed countries in this field has received short-term results, but about many problems in this area, such as what is the stock market bubble? What is the causes of the development or mechanisms? How to test there is the stock market bubble or not according to economic data? How to measure the extent of the bubble? What is the impact of stock market bubble on the social economy? How to prevent and deal with bubble? Areas still have not reached a consensus view, and the definition of the bubble is still in dispute evenly. In this context, this paper uses the relevant theories of economics, finance and econometrics integratedly, adopted standardized analysis and empirical analysis, interpretation summarized analysis and combining theory with practice systematic analysis method, did a depth research about the stock market bubble in China.The basic idea of full text is: Firstly, with the basis on presentation of the literature of the stock market bubble, the paper gives a definition of a stock market bubble, secondly,explores the classification of the stock market bubble, introduces the rational and non-rational bubble model, furthermore, has a related analysis on the method of measuring and testing the stock market bubble, points the advantages and shortcomings of all methods, and on this basis, uses the endogenous model of the bubble to test the stock market bubble in China, confirms the existence of the stock market bubble in China. Thirdly, uses the reasonable profits bubble metrics model, and with the uses of the analysis of the 1993-2007 stock market bubble in the state of the measure, reveals that there are four non-rational bubble periods in China stock market bubble; after confirming the existence of stock bubbles by empirical analysis, the paper uses qualitative analysis method, from the wealth effect, capital cost-effect, distribution effect, the bond debt and the social effects of changes, analyzes the effect of the stock market bubble. Fourthly, from the function of the stock market, the quality of listed companies, noise traders, market makers, as well as the weaknesses inherent in the five aspects, analyzes the causes of the stock market bubble in China, and discusses the China's social economic effects of the stock market bubble; Finally, the paper puts forward constructive measures and proposals about China's cause of the stock market bubble.