The Option Game And Its Application In The Tourism Investment

To guarantee the success of an investment project, we must make the analysis of investment decision-making, so it is with traveling investment program. Nowadays traveling industry serves as the main financial source in many countries, especially those countries rich in traveling resources. There are many traveling places in each country, but not all of them are nature-made and a large number are built through technical program. Before the construction of the program, experts from different aspects will make decision-making analysis for the will-be program to make sure the necessity of further construction.The method for the analysis of investment project falls into three categories: first, Discount Cash Flow Method represented by NPV, which assume the future is definite and prescient, then cash flows according to the prescient flowing-in quantity and flow-out quantity. However, such assumption doesn't stand, because even the greatest experts can't foresee everything exactly. The second-Real Option Method takes the indeterminacy into consideration. This method is the expansion of financial option ideas which makes the investment decision-making more scientific. But the deficiency of such method lies in its assumption of the dominating position of investors, but at most times it contradicts with the reality, for most investing programs are unavoidably competitive. Taking the competitive factor into consideration here comes the third investment decision-making method- Option Game Method. This method is a combination between Option theory and game theory, so it is the newest investment decision-making method till now.This paper first makes a summary of some basic information about the traveling investment program and gives some description about the problems and risks, for these problems and risks decide the indeterminacy of the traveling investment program, while the existence of other investors makes it a must to take competitive into consideration. Then this paper introduces the three theories relevant to option and game according to time order. On the basis of these three theories, equipped with Option Game Theory it studies a type of decision-making analysis for traveling investment program, so as to find out the best flowing-in strategy for investors and provide guidance for practice.