Risk Management Of Port Construction Projects On Monte Carlo Basis

Modern port construction project grows in size,investment and the inner relationship is becoming more complex. On the one hand, the risk in port construction projects becoming larger and difficult to control, while on the other hand, means high-value and opportunities. In port construction project management, the combination of our domestic reality, and in the light of international practice, implementation the project examination and approval system, the legal person responsibility system, bidding system, project supervision system, and major auditing system, so as to protect themselves. But they also need to regain the initiative, the use of modern project management technology, particularly with computer technology, effective risk management.Risk has volatility and uncertainty, the first consideration in writing this paper is how to identify the risks. Combine domestic and international literature, the authors finds that the current domestic risk study only use some simple method. Therefore, this paper use quantitative—Monte Carlo simulation, especially introduce crystal ball software to analysis, thus the result can be More Clear. Hopefully, this can provide more solution in dealing such problems.The thesis has 6 parts. Chapter 1 Introduction, mainly discuss the research background and significance, and it compares the domestic and foreign research literature; Chapter 2 discuss the risk management development history and discuss Monte Carlo method particularly. Chapter 3 analysis the risk identification system in detail, analysis from risks definition, classification, assessment, quantification and other aspects; Chapter 4 is about risk management methods; Chapter 5 use an example to demonstrate how to define risk and quantities it. Chapter 6 is a summarize part.