Research On The Investment Risk Of Project “GS Gas Stations” Based On Monte Carlo Simulations

One gas station both urban infrastructure, urban road traffic system is also indispensable for supporting parts. Obviously an important role in the construction of gas stations. This paper first introduces the gas station project investment concepts, theoretical overview of risk analysis, Monte Carlo simulation method principle and application analysis. The basic concept in the project for gas station, gas station project investment, project investment risk concepts such as gas stations were summarized; risk analysis theory overview, from risk identification, risk assessment, risk assessment three aspects are introduced; finally Monte principle and advantages Carlo methods are introduced and analyzed, and combined with three aspects of risk analysis, analysis of the implementation process of the method used to project risk analysis simulation. Then analyzed and implemented under the framework of the idea of risk analysis framework for the Monte Carlo simulation of the gas station project investment risk.Analytical framework, including Monte Carlo simulation under the gas station project investment risk analysis of all aspects of the basic ideas for each step of the method, such as evaluation of the selected content. Then built according to the framework of the risk factors involved in the gas station project identification; risk estimates in part, on the distribution of risk variables estimation method type and distribution parameters were discussed, and based on historical data using software investment costs and sales of gas stations amount and type of distribution fitting parameter estimation; risk assessment in part, under the assumption the project to build an annuity equal to the net present value(NPV) for the evaluation of the risk assessment model.By GS gas station as an example, the framework of analysis and evaluation of model verification, the project is feasible conclusion is consistent with the actual operational project feasibility report and project situation. And projects put forward a number of important risks corresponding risk countermeasures.