Study On Economic Risk Of The Highway Project Based On Monte-Carlo Method

There are many uncertainties in Highway investment Project, through the analysis of investment projects to improve the economic evaluation method,not only help to improve the reliability of investment decision-making, but also to understand the project is subject to various risks, facilitate the various response measures to improve risk prevention capacity.The economic risk assessment on Highway projects is essential.This article first analyzes the characteristics of highway projects,and stages division of project risk.It Introduces risk management,and analysize economic factors of uncertainty in economic evaluation analysis.This article focuses on the risks of highway project cost and fee income.This paper identifies the cost impact of the four main factors and builds a highway project cost risk estimation methods.It also identifies the impact of the three main factors, and builds fee income risk estimation methods. And then with the cost, fee income and other factors,such as the project period,the structure of investment funds,operating costs, interest rate and exchange rate, etc. This paper builds a decision-making method of risk assessment of highway project. This paper introduces the Monte Carlo method,and discusses highway project risk estimation methods and its realization process. The author analyzes the problems of highway project feasibility report,proposes audit points of highway project feasibility report to control risk factors,to avoid the occurrence of risks.Finally, This paper uses Monte Carlo method,selects a feasibility study report on a road project as an example and argues that the Monte Carlo method in actual risk assessment on highway projects can be a very good application,but also provides researchers a reference.