The Research On Influencing Factors Of Soybean Import & Export Trade In China

As an important source of animal and plant proteins and edible vegetable oil in people's dietary pattern,soybean plays an important role in world agriculture production and daily life. China as an original country of soybean production, was once the most important country of soybean production and export.But after 1990s, the situation essentially changed.From 1996, China has become a net import country from net export;we had to import more soybeans to satisfy domestic needs. This latter analyzed the root of this phenomenon with quantitative demonstration model.The first part :summarize of the whole frame and theory of international trade. In this part,author summarizes and analyzes present theory of international trade.The second part :general situation of production and trade of soybeans in China and the world.The third part :analyzes factors influencing soybean import from two points of overseas and domestic to ensure and quantize these factors. In the beginning,analyze domestic factors influencing import,including domestic production,needs of bean oil and soybean meal,price of domestic market,and policy,and on this basis establishes multiple linear regression models to quantitative analysis,the result is that domestic production and export is negative correlation,and production bean oil and soybean meal and import is positive correlation,it showed that policy is a remarkable factor. In the latter part,we choose production of USA,Brazil and Argentina and production cost as explanatory variables,domestic import as explained variable,to establish panel model,and does root of unity and Granger causality test,we found that domestic import,production of three countries and planting cost have the relationships of long balances.The forth part :tries to analyze the reasons why it appear,according to two points of Chinese soybean competitiveness and factors influencing soybean export. It is indicated that recently competitive level of our soybean indeed has the trend of decrease by index system of international competitiveness;on this basis,through analysis of factors influencing soybean export,it shows that the main reason influencing our soybean export is change of international market and domestic market.The last part :gives advice according to above conclusions.