Study On The Influential Factors And International Competitiveness Of China’s Paper Trade

Paper industry is an important basic industry for national economy and people’s life. Paper and paperboard are necessities in writing, printing and packaging. With the rapid development of paper-making industry, China has become an important producer, consumer and trader of paper products. Thus, studying the influential factors and international competitiveness of China’s paper trade is of great significance for the development of China’s paper industry and the increase of international competitiveness.In this paper, paper products under the HS code 48 and 47 are analyzed. Specifically, we analyze the influential factors of China’s paper and paperboard imports, paper and paperboard exports, writing and printing paper exports, wood pulp imports and recovered paper imports by estimating expanded gravity models of international trade with panel data and evaluate the international competitiveness of China’s paper products by empirical analysis and international comparison.We first study the international trade theory and competitive advantage theory systematically and review literatures in terms of trade influential factors and competitiveness, paper trade at home and abroad. Then, we analyze the developing situation of world’s paper production and trade and summarize the main characteristics of China’s paper industry and production, consumption and trade of paper and paperboard, wood pulp and recovered paper. In the fifth chapter, we analyze the influential factors of China’s paper trade by estimating expanded gravity models with proper variables and estimation techniques. In the sixth and seventh chapter, we evaluate the international competitiveness of China’s paper and paperboard by calculating some indicators and comparing them with some developed countries. Based on the previous research, we put forward some policy recommendations from the perspective of government, paper industry association and enterprises to promote the development of China’s paper industry.According to the results, China’s paper trade has promoted the development and international competitiveness of its paper industry. The international competitiveness of paper industry is increasing when China exports large amounts of paper and paperboard. China’s export supply plays a more important role than importers’ demand in determining China’s paper and paperboard and writing and printing paper exports. China’s import demand plays a more important role than exporters’ supply in determining China’s paper and paperboard and wood pulp imports. While for China’s recovered paper imports, both China’s import demand and exporters’ supply have significant impacts. Price has significant impacts on China’s paper and paperboard imports and exports and the appreciation of RMB increases China’s paper and paperboard imports but decreases China’s paper and paperboard and writing and printing paper exports while has no significant influences on China’s wood pulp imports. Distance has no significant influences on China’s paper and paperboard imports but it decreases wood pulp and recovered paper imports. American’s anti-dumping investigations into China’s paper products has no significant influences on China’s paper and paperboard exports, while China’s anti-dumping investigations can increase paper and paperboard imports. The APEC membership does not help China’s paper trade, while being a member of WTO may decrease China’s paper products exports. Besides, forest endowment is important factor in determining China’s wood pulp imports.The results also show that we should combine several indicators together when evaluating the competitiveness of China’s paper products other than using a single one. Although the competitiveness of China’s paper products is increasing, it is still weak compared with developed countries. However, 4820 and 4823 have great international competitiveness. The competitiveness comes from capital investment, China’s domestic demand, industry cluster and government support, while raw material supply, industrial technology and enterprises’ scale should be promoted.Finally, we should continue the forestry-paper integration, increase waste paper recycling, standardize competitive behaviors and expand the industrial scale to promote the development of China’s paper industry and increase its international competitiveness.