The Empirical Study On The Real Estate Investment Project Based On Real Options

Since the start of China's real estate industry in the 1980's, China's real estate industry is developing rapidly, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other high-speed line growth cities. In recent years, real estate has become the engine of China's economic growth and pillar industry, and is an important pillar for stable development of the national economy.The real estate investment decision-making is a key link in the real estate development process .The scientific and rational decision-making will have a direct impact on the development of the project to proceed smoothly. For a long time, the traditional methods of investment decision-making (for the discount cash flow method) was widely used, but this method in practice has a big flaw, which ignores value brought by the uncertainty and dynamic flexibility,and affects the effective and scientific decision-making to a large extent. In order to make up the traditional methods of investment decision-making, When we evaluate the real estate industry to reflect long-term investment in the industry, investment high costs,strong uncertainty and so on, many scholars at home and abroad have brought real options method in real estate industry,and have accessed to world-reowned achievements. Real options as a standard random analysis for a high degree of uncertain environment in the analysis of investment decision-making, according to the process of solving their analysis, can be divided into two methods: discrete and continuous analysis methods. In this paper, on the basis of the existing research results, it combines the features of real estate development decision-making and studies deeply the real estate development decision-making based on real options model; The paper aims at promoting the real options approach in the real estate field and improving the scientific nature of decision-making of real estate investment.This paper mainly study the content as follows:The first chapter introduces the background and significance of the study, as well as the study of the status quo at home and abroad.The second chapter describes the basic concepts of real estate investment and the characteristics of real estate, traditional analysis methods of investment decision-making .The third chapter describes real options in real estate investment projects in theoretical study, including the basic concept of real options, real estate investment projects contain real options characteristics and types of options, Black-Scholes model and the Binomial model which most commonly used, and two basic methods of analysis, as well as building a framework and parameters of real options in the real estate investment projects.The fourth chapter describes the empirical study of real options. In this paper, the Dongcheng District, Beijing, a study project as an example. By calculating the project's delay options value and using The Geske model to calculate the compound options value, and make a sensitivity analysis. This part describes detailed the decision-making methods of the real options in real estate investment.The fifth chapter summarizes the full text, and addresses the conclusions and deficiency of this study,The study of paper directs the methods of real options for further study .