Research On The Impact Factors Of Housing Consumption Of Urban Residents And It's Trend: Take Chongqing City For Example

When it came the 21st century, China thoroughly canceled the welfare housing Policy and carried out the housing Policy reform over all the country. Therefore,the real estate market has developed rapidly in our country. At the same time,the consumption structures of urban residents have been changed greatly and the housing consumption has become their important expenditure. And the housing consumption encourages the economic increasing powerfully. It has been the focus of society consumption. However,the fast developing of housing industry has caused a series of social Problems,such as housing Price rising quickly,housing structure being unreasonable,the supplying and needing being not equilibrium etc.In this paper, combined the qualitative and quantitative research methods, analyze the problem in commercial buildings market and the status of urban residents housing consumption in Chongqing, found that:①in total, the housing market shows "demand thirst" status;②in Structure, the housing market was in short supply for a long term, imbalance between supply and demand was serious, and this trend is getting worse, contrary with the housing market, commercial buildings and office buildings are in the long-term oversupply situation, and the gap between demand and supply is continuing rise.③in housing market,the price is rising too fast, housing prices far beyond the actual purchasing power of residents, the residential consumption showed the state of up and down, and the general trend is gradually getting rational.And the Paper use of time-varying parameter model analyzes the relationship between domestic consumption of urban residents and per capita disposable income; found that since 1979, urban residents'consumption on domestic showed a marginal increase trend in Chongqing. This is the result of China's gradual implementation of domestic reforms, abolition of welfare housing sharing, and personal purchase of housing consistent increase in expenditure. To the impact of the consumption another important factor-price, the paper also used co integration regression testing the relationship between the sales price of commercial housing and residential consumption, showed that there was a significant positive correlation between them. Then, the paper forecasts the average quantities of the housing consumption for the urban residents in Chongqing from 2008 to 2013 using ARMA (Auto-regressive Moving Average) models. At last, the paper puts forward a series At last,the Paper Puts forward a series of countermeasures (such as distributing the land resource reasonably,ensuring the supplying of affordable housing and low-cost housing,developing the housing which can save resources, establishing the ladder consumption concept etc.)to help to solve the existent Problems in the housing market from the Perspectives of government, real estate developers and consumers.