Holidays Economic Effects Based On The X-12-the Arima Analysis

Holidays are an important component of social life The economic variables affected by people's behavior of the holidays is quite different from non-holiday's. In the last years of 20th century, the affection of holidays has been begun to notice, and used to promote the development of economy as an efficient means. Analyzing the affection extent and pattern can guide government, enterprises and individuals to make decision.This thesis apply X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment model to analyze the economics effect of holidays, which has been used widely in Europe and USA. The writer attempted to set up the holiday model according to The Spring festival, Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Day in the case of the X-12-ARIMA model.In the article, we can find the mechanism of Influence of the holiday, and make the empirical analysis how the holidays affected the Consumption, transport, money supply.As The Spring festival, Labor Day and National Day, the Influence of Tomb-sweeping Day Festival, Dragon Boat Festival and Mid-Autumn Day to Resident Consumption is not so much prominent. And this affection is not only to the urban residents, but to the rural.To the passenger traffic, the National Day's Golden Week get more Influence to the Labor Day, so is The Spring festival, and during the Spring festival, the railway and Highway transport need to afford more pressure.For the money supply, the cash in circulation by the impact of the Spring Festival show the ups and downs between months, besides Ml and M2 is not affected. As a result to this, the financial apartment should prepare.