The Application Of Financial Early-warning System To The Credit Risk Management In Commercial Banks

Credit risk is one of the oldest risks in money market, and is also one of the core problems of business management in commercial banks. Enterprises'bankruptcy for their financial crisis is the direct factor to credit capital loss of commercial bank. In the drastic market, it is too common to see that many companies become insolvent and escaping debts for their financial crisis. How to discover the signal of financial crisis of enterprises, so that the bank can adjust credit policy according to alarm signal timely and avoid loss of credit capital, has become focus. Therefore, applying financial early-warning model of crisis into the credit risk management is extremely and realistically meaningful.According to the present situation of the risk management of the domestic bank loan and the reason entering emerging in risk of the loan, the thesis points out that the credit risk management can not carry on the function that analyses and controls the risks effectively at present. It is necessary to enhance the exploration of the tools of the credit risk management. The thesis applied financial early-warning model of crisis into the credit risk management, using statistical methods to structure the method of middle-long-term loan and short-term loan separately. In order to increase the accuracy of the early-warning result, introduce non-financial factors to revise the early-warning result. Finally, this thesis gives different measures to commercial banks.The article is divided into four parts:The first part introduced the background and researching methods of this study, plus the reasons for this subject and modes of composing the thesis.The second part introduced credit risk management and the financial early-warning. First of all, the thesis defined the risk, risk management and loan risk. Then it explained the reason for the loan risk and the classification. Secondly, described the substance and characteristics of the financial early-warning system. Finally, carried on the survey and appraised in study on domestic and international financial early-warning.The third part is the corn part of this thesis, which mainly introduced the construction of the financial early-warning system in the credit risk management.This thesis divided the structure into two systems, namely: short-term loan and the middle-and-long-term loan.The fourth part introduced non-financial factors to revise the early-warning results, in order to increase the accuracy of the early-warning result. Finally, this thesis gave different measures to commercial banks.The innovations and contribution of this thesis lies in: (1) it is characteristics to apply financial early-warning model of crisis into the risk management of the bank loan for commercial banks. (2)In view of the differences between short-term loan and the middle-long-term loan, this thesis divided the financial early-warning system into two systems, namely: short-term loan and the middle-long-term loan. It is crucial to increase the accuracy of the crisis-warning result. (3) It introduced the non-financial index and predict factor to early-warning analysis.