| The financial early-warning system takes accounting and financial information as foundation. By setting and observing some varieties of sensitivities indexes with early-warning, it implements real time control and forecasts alert about financial risk that enterprises probably or will be face. And then enterprises can prevent them from risk and control it in time, decline the loss to the lowest degree.In recent years, by reason of the aggravating of external market competition and internal poor management, it is common for companies to fall into financial risk in the world, some of which even go bankrupt. In order to survive and develop, some enterprises begin to establish financial early-warning system. Petroleum enterprises are basic industry that the country pays attention to develop, so establishing a effective financial early-warning system become a focus that Petroleum enterprises already pay much attention to. It can correctly forecast and prevent financial risk, reduce shock of security market and promote the benign development.The information system makes for keeping a enterprise competition ability. Information-based financial management will play more great effect in an enterprise. The current finance software and the enterprise resources plan(ERP) all think much of the financial information, the change and the upgrade of the system function, namely from traditional transaction processing to analyses processing. The financial software companies, such as UFIDA, Kingdee etc, all increased the financial analysis module in its financial software product, in order to show its management functions more greatly in financial information system. The enterprise financial early-warning management is the important segment in finance management. But the current financial software all did not include it. The financial analysis module in finance software of UFIDA or Kingdee still is limited by the finance index analysis only, could not carry out financial early-warning;The early-warning system module of the Oracle Applications is just a kind of exception report tool, can pay attention to some key business only, and small can be competent a enterprise whole comprehensive finance early warning.The enterprise finance early warning management information system based on financial information system or ERP system is a full newly information system or module. This paper takes the petroleum sale enterprise as to begin a point, analyses its industry characteristics. From the extant each kind of quota early warning model, including the single variable model, the multivariable model, the Z model, the probabilistic model and other non- statistical model and so on, the Z model was selected as the suitable early warning model, and performed it to apply. In the process of utilizing this model, this article not directly applies the result of the Z model formula mechanically, but taking some petroleum sale company's all previous years finance report data as a source and putting the principal components and the host factor together, obtains the Z value. Finally the Z model formula was generated dynamically by the return mode. This Z model formula will be apply to the enterprise finance risk early warning practice and will be more direct, more to conform to the reality than use extant Z model.Moreover, this paper also take this company as an example, financial risk early warning information system was designed based on this company data, namely implements financial risk early warning computerizing. It will put the improved Z model into implement by the program mode in the system, and really feedback company finance risk early warning information by friendly interface. |
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