The Study On Regional Road Transpoatation Demand Forecast

As far as we know,the accurate and objective prediction of the future road transportation demand is the just foundation of the scientific transportation planning.Until now,over one hundrerd methods are used,which mainly include qualitative and quatitative analysis.The traditional prediction methods mainly analyse the historical transportation statistics so as to foresee the trend of transportation development.But the factual results of these predictions are not very successful for the reason that the organic match of transportation demand and supply,as well as the partial equilibrium of the demand and supply under specific transportation situations.The traditional theory lacks a systematic forecasting,which results in a series of problems influencing the forecasting result,such as difficult in finding fitful angle to predict.As the national economy and social development,the development of the road transportation is also paid more attention.For successful regional planning,reliable road transportation's future trend is extremely important.The dissertation is based on the reality of the 11th Five-Year Plan of Road Transport.The forecasting theory and scientific forecasting methods have been applyied to research for the forcasting system and methods of road-transporting demand.With the analysis of relevance of regional road-transporting demand and socio-economic development,the importance of forecasting regional road-transporting demand is pointed out.After analyzing current forecast problems,several proposals on the issue are put forward,and the rationalize forecast system is constructed with the empirical research,which Shan'Xi province is as an example.The innovation of this dissertation:With the introduction of the equilibrium of transportation demand and supply,this thesis asseses the kind of equilibrium by the criteria of"adaptability",analyzes demand and supply of the regional road transportation.According to the forecast theory,some constructing proposals are put forward on the current issue,the portfolio forecasting model based on Theil-Ranging from coefficient Model is proved to be fit for forecasting regional road transporting demand.This dissertation is the attempting one on studying forecasting methods of road transporting demand.